Lucas Spence
Lucas Spence is a 23-year-old center fielder for the Houston Astros. He is a power-first center fielder with a good eye, ranked 35th in the league at the position.
About these ratings
Tool ratings combine recorded performance with statistical estimates. Speed, arm, and fielding include outcome-based estimates rather than direct physical measurements.
Limited MLB evidence: 21.0% MLB and 79.0% level-adjusted minor-league estimate.
Minor-league estimate: 67.4% observed statistical weight and 32.6% historical peer baseline; individual tools use their own sample weights.
* On NTV, this indicates estimated or unverified inputs. CE uses an asterisk only when current contract information is unavailable.
CE uses the best available contract information, including partial terms, estimated salaries, and projected team control. CE shows an asterisk only when current contract information is unavailable; free agents without a current agreement use 100*.
2026 win contribution
0.88 Player Wins · 0.28 expected from replacement · 0.60 wins above replacement
Includes contributions to every team played for in 2026. Perf expresses wins above replacement on a scale where 100 is average. How the win totals reconcile
Six-tool graphs show percentiles from available performance evidence. Speed uses baserunning outcomes; Arm uses position-adjusted throwing outcomes. Movement describes tracked pitch movement within pitch type. Minor-league comparisons account for competition level; unavailable measurements display MD.
Edge Profile
Edge combines Perf, Stick, and Carry to show how valuable a player is right now. With a Perf of 94, Stick of 98, and Carry of 98, Lucas Spence sits in the 70th percentile, 57th percentile, and 71st percentile in those areas. His 97 Edge lands in the 73rd percentile and ranks 24th among center fielders.
Stick Profile
Stick looks beyond the immediate results and estimates what should hold over a larger sample. Lucas Spence's 98 Stick suggests he is performing close to the level supported by his underlying profile. It also places him in the 57th percentile and ranks 27th among center fielders.
Perf Profile
Perf measures season wins above replacement after allocating each team's actual wins to its players. It includes Lucas Spence's contributions to every team he played for. His 94 Perf is below average on a scale where 100 is average and 20 points is one standard deviation. It sits in the 70th percentile and ranks 27th among center fielders.
Carry Profile
Carry places Perf in the context of the roster around a player and includes a bounded clutch adjustment for offense, pitching, and defense when available. Close games and later innings earn more weight, and difficult defensive plays receive their own credit. His clutch runs are offense +0.6, pitching +0.0, defense +0.3. The strongest rated teammates are Yordan Alvarez at 172, Isaac Paredes at 136, and Jeremy Peña at 130. Lucas Spence has contributed about as much as his own Perf suggests, resulting in a Carry of 98.
LI Profile
LI looks at how much useful baseball a player may still have ahead of him. At age 23, Lucas Spence carries a 109 LI, which points to a steady near-term outlook without a major longevity advantage. That places him in the 79th percentile and ranks 40th among center fielders.
CE Profile
CE compares expected production with the money and years attached to a contract. The model uses a 6 seasons control horizon, $0.8 million average annual value, and about $0.8 million in contract-scenario costs for Lucas Spence. Options and arbitration can make those years or costs conditional; manual contract inputs may lag new agreements. His 104 CE is close to a fair exchange between salary and production, placing him in the 50th percentile and 68th among center fielders.
NTV Profile
NTV estimates Lucas Spence's value on a neutral trade market before the needs of a specific club are considered. His +23* NTV reflects his present ability, expected future value, age, contract, control, positional demand, and risk. That mark sits in the 93rd percentile and ranks 35th among center fielders. Lucas Spence carries clear positive value and should return a useful major league piece or prospect package.