AJ Smith-Shawver
AJ Smith-Shawver is a 23-year-old starting pitcher for the Atlanta Braves. He is a power starting pitcher with a deep arsenal, ranked 487th in the league at the role.
About these ratings
Tool ratings combine recorded performance with statistical estimates. Speed, arm, and fielding include outcome-based estimates rather than direct physical measurements.
Limited MLB evidence: 61.0% MLB and 39.0% level-adjusted minor-league estimate.
Minor-league estimate: 36.1% observed statistical weight and 63.9% historical peer baseline; individual tools use their own sample weights.
* On NTV, this indicates estimated or unverified inputs. CE uses an asterisk only when current contract information is unavailable.
CE uses the best available contract information, including partial terms, estimated salaries, and projected team control. CE shows an asterisk only when current contract information is unavailable; free agents without a current agreement use 100*.
2026 win contribution
0.02 Player Wins · 0.74 expected from replacement · -0.72 wins above replacement
Includes contributions to every team played for in 2026. Perf expresses wins above replacement on a scale where 100 is average. How the win totals reconcile
Six-tool graphs show percentiles from available performance evidence. Speed uses baserunning outcomes; Arm uses position-adjusted throwing outcomes. Movement describes tracked pitch movement within pitch type. Minor-league comparisons account for competition level; unavailable measurements display MD.
Edge Profile
Edge combines Perf, Stick, and Carry to show how valuable a player is right now. With a Perf of 77, Stick of 92, and Carry of 80, AJ Smith-Shawver sits in the 9th percentile, 38th percentile, and 7th percentile in those areas. His 67 Edge lands in the 16th percentile and ranks 160th among starting pitchers.
Stick Profile
Stick looks beyond the immediate results and estimates what should hold over a larger sample. AJ Smith-Shawver's 92 Stick suggests he is performing below what his underlying profile supports. It also places him in the 38th percentile and ranks 144th among starting pitchers.
Perf Profile
Perf measures season wins above replacement after allocating each team's actual wins to its players. It includes AJ Smith-Shawver's contributions to every team he played for. His 77 Perf is well below average on a scale where 100 is average and 20 points is one standard deviation. It sits in the 9th percentile and ranks 175th among starting pitchers.
Carry Profile
Carry places Perf in the context of the roster around a player and includes a bounded clutch adjustment for offense, pitching, and defense when available. Close games and later innings earn more weight, and difficult defensive plays receive their own credit. His clutch runs are offense +0.0, pitching -2.3, defense -0.2. The strongest rated teammates are Michael Harris II at 172, Chris Sale at 143, and Drake Baldwin at 133. AJ Smith-Shawver has contributed about as much as his own Perf suggests, resulting in a Carry of 80.
LI Profile
LI looks at how much useful baseball a player may still have ahead of him. At age 23, AJ Smith-Shawver carries a 107 LI, which points to a steady near-term outlook without a major longevity advantage. That places him in the 65th percentile and ranks 37th among starting pitchers.
CE Profile
CE compares expected production with the money and years attached to a contract. The model uses a 5 seasons control horizon, $0.8 million average annual value, and about $0.8 million in contract-scenario costs for AJ Smith-Shawver. Options and arbitration can make those years or costs conditional; manual contract inputs may lag new agreements. His 104 CE is close to a fair exchange between salary and production, placing him in the 50th percentile and 846th among starting pitchers.
NTV Profile
NTV estimates AJ Smith-Shawver's value on a neutral trade market before the needs of a specific club are considered. His +15* NTV reflects his present ability, expected future value, age, contract, control, positional demand, and risk. That mark sits in the 82nd percentile and ranks 487th among starting pitchers. AJ Smith-Shawver carries clear positive value and should return a useful major league piece or prospect package.