Josh Naylor
Josh Naylor is a 29-year-old first baseman for the Seattle Mariners. He is a contact-first first baseman with an elite arm, a good glove, and good speed, ranked 273rd in the league at the position.
About these ratings
Tool ratings combine recorded performance with statistical estimates. Speed, arm, and fielding include outcome-based estimates rather than direct physical measurements.
CE uses the best available contract information, including partial terms, estimated salaries, and projected team control. CE shows an asterisk only when current contract information is unavailable; free agents without a current agreement use 100*.
2026 win contribution
2.07 Player Wins · 2.86 expected from replacement · -0.79 wins above replacement
Includes contributions to every team played for in 2026. Perf expresses wins above replacement on a scale where 100 is average. How the win totals reconcile
Six-tool graphs show percentiles from available performance evidence. Speed uses baserunning outcomes; Arm uses position-adjusted throwing outcomes. Movement describes tracked pitch movement within pitch type. Minor-league comparisons account for competition level; unavailable measurements display MD.
Edge Profile
Edge combines Perf, Stick, and Carry to show how valuable a player is right now. With a Perf of 76, Stick of 99, and Carry of 80, Josh Naylor sits in the 7th percentile, 61st percentile, and 7th percentile in those areas. His 69 Edge lands in the 20th percentile and ranks 65th among first basemen.
Stick Profile
Stick looks beyond the immediate results and estimates what should hold over a larger sample. Josh Naylor's 99 Stick suggests he is performing far below what his underlying profile supports. It also places him in the 61st percentile and ranks 48th among first basemen.
Perf Profile
Perf measures season wins above replacement after allocating each team's actual wins to its players. It includes Josh Naylor's contributions to every team he played for. His 76 Perf is well below average on a scale where 100 is average and 20 points is one standard deviation. It sits in the 7th percentile and ranks 70th among first basemen.
Carry Profile
Carry places Perf in the context of the roster around a player and includes a bounded clutch adjustment for offense, pitching, and defense when available. Close games and later innings earn more weight, and difficult defensive plays receive their own credit. His clutch runs are offense -2.8, pitching +0.0, defense +1.3. The strongest rated teammates are Randy Arozarena at 142, Bryan Woo at 130, and Cole Young at 109. Josh Naylor has contributed about as much as his own Perf suggests, resulting in a Carry of 80.
LI Profile
LI looks at how much useful baseball a player may still have ahead of him. At age 29, Josh Naylor carries a 109 LI, which points to a steady near-term outlook without a major longevity advantage. That places him in the 79th percentile and ranks 187th among first basemen.
CE Profile
CE compares expected production with the money and years attached to a contract. The model uses a 5 seasons control horizon, $18.5 million average annual value, and about $92.5 million in contract-scenario costs for Josh Naylor. Options and arbitration can make those years or costs conditional; manual contract inputs may lag new agreements. His 64 CE marks the contract as a substantial drag on his value, placing him in the 1st percentile and 273rd among first basemen.
NTV Profile
NTV estimates Josh Naylor's value on a neutral trade market before the needs of a specific club are considered. His -34 NTV reflects his present ability, expected future value, age, contract, control, positional demand, and risk. That mark sits in the 1st percentile and ranks 273rd among first basemen. Josh Naylor is deeply underwater as a trade asset and would likely require substantial salary relief or added value to move.